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Evidence
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failed
Transcript pending.
failed
Transcript pending.
failed
Imported legacy trade notes / checklist News Trading PNL since June 25 Trading Journal Thank god I didn't close (hopefully not saying that too soon. Some recovery today. Going to short tesla and long nvda on the fund account. so I literally shorted the pico bottom on trump. I also got rekt on XRP. How many times am I going to learn to not short because the chart looks bad? That is always a loser in crypto. It's a sign of overextended positioning. Shorting Trump 5% I've been jumping around on crypto and not following the process. What is the process? For new years I want a resolution which is to set a process and follow it for this year. Be really rigid and follow it closely. All trades in the journal. Follow the plan. No apeing. For my hedges we are just going to hedge the real amount of ETH exposure. This does NOT include the TRUMP and SUI shorts, so those are discretionary. Stop looking at daily PnL's and worrying about it so much. Enter high conviction positions that we can hold on a long time frame and capture +EV. Trade Checklist Trade: Closed out short MARA | Long Gold and Silver and Copper | Long Gold | Long NVDA / Short TSLA | Long Gold | Short TRUMP 7% main 10% fund and Acp | Hedges | Close most discretionary shorts | Short SOL over ETH for hedging | Short TRUMP / SUI | Long Gold / Silver | Short CYPH | Short ABTC | Long GNO / Short ETH | Long OHM | Short Quantum | Long INTC Thesis: Wanted long GLXY to hedge my short crypto, wasn't that good of a short anyways, btc + miners ripping | Momo chasing + tailing riff + US indicting powell | momo chasing + tailing riff raff on his high conviction trade | NVDA is going to beat earnings, TSLA will not. | Tailing riff raff / momentum before jan 8 rebal pulled liq | 1/3rd XRP, 2/3rd ETH. XRP looks horrific vs ETH. Close mid jan when Tom Lee stops buying. | Don't want to be directionally exposed during vacation. Want to put on short trump long shitcoins soon, though. | Massive sol unlocks + no Tom Lee | Massive unlocks, it's over for crypto, saylor not buying btc | Momentum / Tailing Riff Raff | Overvalued relative to MNAV | extremely overvalued relative to mnav | GNO instituting buybacks up to book, Book value is about 60% ETH. Overshorting ETH to lock in the gain, and also because the offchain holdings are going to be somewhat correlated to ETH, and could bring the discount up to 50% or so. We are relying on Chud for this one which lowers our conviction level. | CDs will cause a new onchain ponzi to form | Quantum are scam cos that are going to zero | Reshoring of semi production Conviction: Med | Med | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | High | Med | High | High | Low Entry Rating: Low | Low | Med | Low | Low | Med | Low | Low | Low | Low | Med | Med | Low | Med Volatility: Med | Low | Med | Low | Med | Med | High | Low | High | High | Med | Low | High | Low Ability to Add if Moves Against: Low | Med | High | High | High | High | High | Low | High | High | High | High | High | Med Liquidity: High | High | High | High | High | High | High | High | Low | Low | Low Trade Score: -1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 Max Loss: 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 2% Max Loss Override: breakeven on the entries | 0.25bps % | 10k | 20000 Sizing: 15% | 15% | 10% ish | 10% ish | 5-10% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 2% | 7% | 20% | 5% me, c. 10% SMAs | 3% | 3% Size up If: Don't | moves against | moves against | don't really | Up 20-30% | Up 20-30% | moves down | Each 50%, we add 50bps of book Exit If: Raff exits | TSLA dumps ~30-50% | tail riff raff | < $2 or deeply neg funding | Liquidation cascade, or funding massively negative | Liquidation cascade, or funding massively negative | when Riff Raff exits | No exit, we hold this to completion | No exit, we hold this to completion | Team starts obstructing | CDs cause price to double or really even go above $40 | Material outlook for semis changes
Transcript pending.
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Evidence
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Evidence
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Full book
| Symbol | Theme | Venue | Direction | Market value | Portfolio % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NIKKEI22 | ? | MT5 | Short | $-213,086,000 | 96.1% |
| 2337, tw, macro... | ? | IBKR | Long | $1,248,800 | 0.6% |
| 268A.T, jp, rigaku | Asia AI Buildout | IBKR | Long | $1,063,800 | 0.5% |
| SOI | Optics | IBKR | Long | $733,600 | 0.3% |
| 6834, jp, seiko... | Asia AI Buildout | IBKR | Long | $624,800 | 0.3% |
| 3017, tw, asia ... | Asia AI Buildout | IBKR | Long | $448,000 | 0.2% |
| 6855, jp, japan... | Asia AI Buildout | IBKR | Long | $443,800 | 0.2% |
| BLSH | Crypto - Short | MT5 | Short | $-438,350 | 0.2% |
| GNO | Crypto - Long | IBKR | Long | $345,425 | 0.2% |
| TSM | ? | MT5 | Short | $-337,340 | 0.2% |
| UAN | Hormuz Hedge | IBKR | Long | $317,000 | 0.1% |
| TSLA | High beta short | MT5 | Short | $-285,952 | 0.1% |
| WLFIUSDT | Crypto - Short | BYB | Short | $-259,825 | 0.1% |
| WLFI | Crypto - Long | IBKR | Long | $218,679 | 0.1% |
| ETHUSDT | Crypto - Short | BYB | Short | $-200,735 | 0.1% |
| XRPUSDT | Crypto - Short | BYB | Short | $-190,317 | 0.1% |
| ETH | Crypto - Long | IBKR | Long | $183,765 | 0.1% |
| TEMPLE | Crypto - Long | IBKR | Long | $172,224 | 0.1% |
| AGRO | Hormuz Hedge | IBKR | Long | $159,200 | 0.1% |
| SNDK | NAND | HL | Long | $157,845 | 0.1% |
| CVX | Crypto - Long | IBKR | Long | $146,150 | 0.1% |
| HYPEUSDT | Crypto - Long | BYB | Long | $137,304 | 0.1% |
| CVXUSDT | Crypto - Short | BYB | Short | $-128,213 | 0.1% |
| OKLO | High beta short | MT5 | Short | $-112,600 | 0.1% |
| HEGIC | Crypto - Long | IBKR | Long | $80,331 | 0.0% |
| INV | Crypto - Long | IBKR | Long | $79,454 | 0.0% |
| HOHM | Crypto - Long | IBKR | Long | $69,023 | 0.0% |
| HUN | Hormuz Hedge | IBKR | Long | $46,100 | 0.0% |
| CRVUSDT | Crypto - Short | BYB | Short | $-44,060 | 0.0% |
| AEROUSDT | Crypto - Short | BYB | Short | $-29,801 | 0.0% |